【ECON20161207】
宏观经济学研讨会 （总第202期）  
【时间】2016年4月20日（周三）12：15－13：45
【地点】明法0102教室
【主讲】陈小亮 中国社会科新葡京官方 经济研究所
【主题】The Tail that Wags the Economy Belief Driven Business Cycles and Persistent Stagnation (J. Kozlowski et al., NBER Working Paper, 2015)
【点评】薛涧坡 中国人民大学财政金融新葡京官方 副教授
【摘要】The “Great Recession” was a deep downturn with long-lasting effects on credit markets, labor markets and output. We explore a simple explanation: This recession has been more persistent than others because it was perceived as an extremely unlikely event before 2007. Observing such an episode led all agents to re-assess macro risk, in particular, the probability of tail events. To model this idea, we study a production economy with debt-financed firms. Agents use standard econometric tools to estimate the distribution of aggregate shocks. We feed a time-series of US macro data into our model and show that our belief revision mechanism can explain the 12% downward shift in US trend output.
【主持】陈彦斌 教授


新葡京官方 宏观经济学研讨会（Macro Workshop）旨在追踪宏观经济学国际最新进展，倡导构建符合国情的动态优化模型，并使用计算机模拟研究经济增长、收入分配和宏观政策等中国宏观经济重大问题。
联系人：刘哲希    Email：[email protected]
资料下载：www.docin.com/mydoc-88265459-1.html
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新葡京官方 中国经济改革与发展研究院